Forecast models are predicting a 15 to 20 percent chance of snow on Dec. 25 for north Texas. That might not sound like much, but normally there’s only a three to four percent chance. So these new predictions make snow about five times more likely than most years.
“What we can say is we can’t rule it out at this point,” National Weather Service meteorologist Ted Ryan said to the Fort Worth Star Telegram. “We still think there’s a greater likelihood of a cold and dry Christmas but the models are saying there’s a 15 to 20 percent of a winter storm. That’s a pretty high number for 10 days out.”
The conditions will have to be just right for snow to fall in Texas. Specifically, an upper level storm system will have to stall and funnel moisture into the Lone Star State. If it dissipates or moves westward, then it will still get bitterly cold, but there won’t be any of the fluffy white stuff.
Some forecast models are predicting a “wintery mix” storm of snow and sleet in the Hill Country on Dec. 23, which could translate into a white Christmas for San Antonio and Austin if the weather holds out. San Antonio’s KENS 5 reported a 40 percent chance of that forecast coming true.
If you think snow is rare in Texas, snow on Christmas is rarer than hen’s teeth. The last time there was a white Christmas in Texas was 2012. The Dallas/Fort Worth area got three inches of snow that year.
Abilene had a white Christmas in 2009. A winter storm in 2004 also brought on a white Christmas in Houston and the Gulf Coast. San Angelo hasn’t had a white Christmas since before World War II!
While much of the rest of the Lone Star State is expected to get down into the 30’s, you’re not likely to see the snow on the beach images we saw in 2004. However, weather forecasts are predicting rain, along with freezing temperatures, which creates the perfect recipe for ice. With treacherous driving conditions possible, you may need to move any travel plans up a day.